The information and opinions expressed below are based on my analysis of price behavior and chart activity

Thursday, May 8, 2025

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Every morning, at about 8 AM CST, I post a short video highlighting where I see opportunities in the futures markets.  You can view my most recent video here   

December Corn (Daily) 

Today, December Corn settled at 4.38 ¾, down 2 cents on the day.  That is the lowest close since Christmas Eve.  Today’s low was 4.35 ¾, eclipsing the March 31^st low.  However, by the end of the session, prices did recover to about mid-range.  After closing just above that blue trendline on Monday, drawn off of the December 5^th and April 4^th lows, we’ve had 3 successive closes below that. Tomorrow is Friday and the market is down 11 ½ on the week.  We may see a profit-taking bounce because of that.  Also, the May WASDE report will be released on Monday and those can sometimes move the market dramatically.  Speculators that have been short this market may choose to liquidate or lighten up their positions before that, which I think may result in a rally.   And if the USDA data gives the market a bullish boost, it’s quite possible we could see Dec Corn right back up at the upper red trendline in a short period of time.  The short-term moving average on the chart above are still in bearish territory and pointing lower.  Stochastics are reading oversold levels and have been that way for most of the month.  Looking back over the chart, this seems like the longest that Dec Corn likes to stay oversold.  It can stay overbought/oversold for extended periods (see Dec 31^st-Feb 21^st) but hasn’t “liked” to stay oversold for very long over the past year or so.   Aggressive and well-margined traders may do well to consider Buying December Corn at 4.40 OB, with a 10-cent risk/reverse from your entry point.  It may seem out of reach at the moment, but a profit target near that red trendline, roughly 4.60, could work out well. 

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Every morning, at about 8 AM CST,  I post a short video highlighting where I see opportunities in the futures markets.  You can view my most recent video here   

December Corn (Weekly)

This weekly view of December Corn goes back a little over 2 years.  I don’t think there is any question that it’s been trending lower.  As of this writing, Dec Corn has dropped 11 ½ cents this week, following declines of 5 ½ cents and 10 ¼ cents over the past 2 weeks.  IF the market were to close the week out like this, it would be the lowest weekly close since mid-December.  You may notice the blue trendline on the chart above, drawn off of the December and 1^st week of April lows.  Last week’s trade saw that line act as support, but this week the market is pushing below that and that doesn’t seem friendly to prices, I think. The headline fundamentals seem bearish, planting is progressing well, with expected acreage is estimated near 95 million acres.  One of our biggest consumers, China, has slowed their purchases in reaction to the tariffs.  However, China typically moves their purchases away from the US at this time of year, as Brazil’s harvest provides the “newest” crop, and the Chinese spent a ton of capital on improving that infrastructure over the past few years.  So yes, the tariffs MAY have an effect, but there is certainly time to resolve that before it becomes a more urgent issue.  If the market is unable to bounce or turn higher soon, a test of the contract lows at 4.28 is in the cards, I think.  Corn Producers should have at least 25% of their intended yield hedged or sold.  If you haven’t covered those bushels already, perhaps consider December Put options.  I suggest options at this time, rather than futures, as I would typically expect a bit of a rally (which has not yet appeared) from now until Father’s Day and the options will give you time to withstand that without margin calls. Reach out to me directly if you need some ideas on how to do that. 

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Every morning, at about 8 AM CST,  I post a short video highlighting where I see opportunities in the futures markets.  You can view my most recent video here   

Jefferson Fosse  Walsh Trading

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